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Full practices do not erase questionable. Before early options lock, keep a usable Sunday-night or Monday replacement, using an eligible flex slot if that preserves more choices. Without a late fallback, compare Nabers with your available early starter now. This owl likes options more than crossed fingers.
The twelve highest expected PPR totals among 463 Week 1 forecasts. The dot is the expected total, the bar runs from the 15th to the 85th percentile, and the tick is the median. Where bars overlap, the order between them is loose. Captured Sep 5, 4:13 PM ET.
| Player | Floor | Median | Expected | Ceiling | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.1 | 21.3 | 22.9 | 34.1 | 99% |
| Justin Herbert | 11.7 | 21.2 | 22.2 | 32.7 | 98% |
| Joe Burrow | 11.0 | 20.8 | 21.4 | 31.6 | 98% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9.8 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 33.6 | 98% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9.0 | 19.0 | 20.6 | 32.4 | 99% |
| Jared Goff | 10.2 | 18.7 | 20.5 | 30.6 | 99% |
| Derrick Henry | 9.1 | 18.6 | 20.1 | 31.0 | 98% |
| Tyler Shough | 9.2 | 18.3 | 19.8 | 30.2 | 99% |
| Lamar Jackson | 9.8 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 29.9 | 98% |
| Jalen Hurts | 10.2 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 29.7 | 95% |
| Josh Allen | 8.1 | 18.4 | 19.7 | 30.8 | 95% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9.2 | 17.9 | 19.6 | 30.7 | 97% |
Kamara is inactive. Find the replacement before kickoff.
Malik NabersWaiting on Nabers requires a replacement who plays late, too.
Tua TagovailoaTua is out. The old projection cannot take a snap for him.
Cooper RushRush gets the job. He does not inherit Tua’s forecast.
Ke'Shawn WilliamsKe’Shawn Williams made the Bengals’ roster; the targets are the next test
Michael WilsonCardinals extend Michael Wilson three years; Week 1 targets are a separate question
Anthony RichardsonColts make Anthony Richardson the backup: unstartable until that changes
Greg DortchGreg Dortch ‘feels wanted’ in Buffalo; the Bills haven’t defined his role
AJ DillonAJ Dillon has a Carolina role, and it sounds like mentor, not workhorse
Michael Penix Jr.Falcons kept four quarterbacks and still haven’t settled on Michael Penix Jr.
Bryce OliverBrowns add WR Bryce Oliver to the practice squad; a name, not a play yet
Jonnu SmithJonnu Smith is learning a new offense in Green Bay; last season is a poor guide
Kenyon SadiqJets call rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq ‘almost ready’; his role is still undefined
Emari DemercadoEmari Demercado comes home to Dallas; offense or special teams is unsettled
Jaydon BlueEagles keep RB Jaydon Blue on the practice squad; the game-day path is unclear
Braelon AllenBraelon Allen got the Jets’ starter reps only while Breece Hall sat
Cameron LatuPatriots claim TE Cameron Latu off waivers; his snap count is the open question
Adonai MitchellJets keep talking up Adonai Mitchell; the targets have to follow
Jarquez HunterJarquez Hunter starts his Dolphins stint on the practice squad
Dillon GabrielDillon Gabriel lands on the Browns’ injured reserve; our forecast predates the move
James ConnerJames Conner goes on IR with a return designation: out now, eligible later
Hunter LongCardinals trade for TE Hunter Long, a LaFleur reunion with no target share attached
Quinn EwersJaguars trade for QB Quinn Ewers, pending a physical; no starting path yet
Keenan AllenKeenan Allen caught one ball in the Colts’ finale; his Week 1 role is unproven
Corey KinerCardinals trade RB Corey Kiner to New England; a stash, not a starter
Jeremy RuckertThe Jets’ tight-end room is crowded, and Jeremy Ruckert has no clear lane
Jalen MilroeJalen Milroe’s best preseason game yet doesn’t move him toward Seattle’s starts
Makai LemonMakai Lemon’s preseason debut had highs and lows; wait for real snaps
Fernando MendozaRaiders frame Fernando Mendoza’s preseason as lessons, not a starting case
Quentin JohnstonQuentin Johnston’s 65-yard score shows the Herbert connection, not the volume
Tutu AtwellRams bring Tutu Atwell back in the Jarquez Hunter trade
Calvin Austin IIICalvin Austin III’s season is over: torn ACL, Giants put him on IR
Rashod BatemanRashod Bateman led the Ravens’ offense in joint practice with Washington
Tyler GoodsonFalcons call Tyler Goodson ‘fast, elusive and decisive’; there is no role attached yet
Xavier HutchinsonXavier Hutchinson had a day with C.J. Stroud in Houston’s last home camp practice
No matching briefs. Try another player or position.
One dot per Week 1 forecast among the 240 players expected to score at least five PPR points. Fainter dots are less likely to play. Top tier means the 95th percentile: a floor of at least 8.9 and a ceiling of at least 29.7. They are Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Herbert, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Jared Goff, Tyler Shough, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. A close matchup wants the floor; an underdog wants the ceiling.
| Player | Floor | Median | Expected | Ceiling | Plays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 12.1 | 21.3 | 22.9 | 34.1 | 99% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9.8 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 33.6 | 98% |
| Justin Herbert | 11.7 | 21.2 | 22.2 | 32.7 | 98% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9.0 | 19.0 | 20.6 | 32.4 | 99% |
| Joe Burrow | 11.0 | 20.8 | 21.4 | 31.6 | 98% |
| Derrick Henry | 9.1 | 18.6 | 20.1 | 31.0 | 98% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 9.2 | 17.9 | 19.6 | 30.7 | 97% |
| Jared Goff | 10.2 | 18.7 | 20.5 | 30.6 | 99% |
| Tyler Shough | 9.2 | 18.3 | 19.8 | 30.2 | 99% |
| Lamar Jackson | 9.8 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 29.9 | 98% |
| Jalen Hurts | 10.2 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 29.7 | 95% |
Every Week 1 number on this site was captured Sep 5, 4:13 PM ET, ahead of the first kickoff at Sep 9, 8:20 PM ET. When the games are final, results go beside the original forecasts, misses included. Inspect the record.
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